Swalwell surges in CA governor’s race as attacks intensify
Eric Swalwell leads a crowded Democratic field with 17% support, drawing coordinated pushback from rivals and a residency challenge from Tom Steyer.
Mar 31, 2026, 11:53 PM EDT
Why it matters:
- A clear front-runner could consolidate Democratic support and blunt a rare Republican opening in California’s top-two primary.
Driving the news:
- Eric Swalwell leads the Democratic field at 17% in a new Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics survey, up from 12% in December. - His closest rivals are Republican Steve Hilton at 13%, with Tom Steyer and Chad Bianco tied at 11%. - A plurality of voters remain undecided, keeping the race wide open.
State of play:
- Swalwell’s momentum has triggered a coordinated pushback from rivals, including digital ads and public attacks. - Tom Steyer’s campaign questioned Swalwell’s California residency and asked the Secretary of State to investigate eligibility. - Swalwell’s campaign disputes the claims and says he meets the five-year residency requirement.
What they're saying:
- “Whoever’s head starts to stick up higher than the rest, the other candidates pick up their mallets and start to knock them back down,” said Democratic consultant Roger Salazar. - “The polls are really good for Swalwell… A lot of Democratic contributors out there are looking for a horse to bet on,” said Claremont McKenna College professor Jack Pitney. - “If the election were held today, this would be between Swalwell and Steve Hilton,” said veteran strategist Garry South.
By the numbers:
- Swalwell: 17% (up from 12% in December). - Steve Hilton: 13% (down from 17% in February). - Tom Steyer and Chad Bianco: 11% each. - Katie Porter: 8%. - 25% of likely voters are undecided.
The intrigue:
- Swalwell’s national profile from the second Trump impeachment trial and a high-profile “Jimmy Kimmel Live” campaign launch have boosted name ID. - He recently secured an endorsement from SEIU California and won a delegate plurality at the state party convention.
What to watch:
- Whether Swalwell’s lead holds as rivals intensify attacks and Steyer’s residency challenge plays out. - If endorsements and fundraising follow the polling, or if the field consolidates around a single Democrat.
The bottom line:
- Swalwell is the early favorite, but a crowded field and undecided voters keep the race competitive.