Two Republicans Lead California Governor's Race in Unthinkable Poll
California's top-two primary system could force a November showdown between two GOP candidates if Democrats fail to consolidate. With the party's vote split among eight contenders, a Republican victory would shatter a 18-year streak of Democratic control and threaten the state's legislative supermajority.
Mar 17, 2026, 10:57 PM EDT
Why it matters: California's unique primary rules allow the top two vote-getters to advance regardless of party, creating a rare scenario where Democrats risk being eliminated from the general election ballot entirely.
The big picture:
- Republicans Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco lead recent polls, while the Democratic field remains fractured among eight candidates.
- This dynamic could force a November matchup between two Republicans, a first in the state since Arnold Schwarzenegger's 2006 victory.
- A Republican governor would need to negotiate with a Democratic supermajority in the legislature to pass major legislation.
By the numbers:
- Political data consultant Paul Mitchell estimates a roughly 20% chance of a Hilton-Bianco matchup if no Democrat drops out.
- Hilton leads with 17% support, followed by Bianco at 16%, while top Democrats Katie Porter and Eric Swalwell trail at 13% each.
- Democrats typically split 60% of the vote in California, compared to 40% for Republicans, but the crowded field dilutes that advantage.
State of play:
- California Democratic Party Chairman Rusty Hicks urged lower-polling candidates to drop out, but all but one ignored the plea.
- The University of Southern California canceled a debate featuring only four Democrats after protests over exclusion criteria for candidates of color.
- Governor Gavin Newsom, barred from reelection, has not yet endorsed a successor, citing the redistricting battle as a distraction.
The intrigue:
- Hilton, a former Fox News commentator, has raised $6.3 million with backing from tech billionaires and Rupert Murdoch.
- Bianco, a Riverside County Sheriff, has secured endorsements from over 50 law enforcement groups and is running on a tough-on-crime platform.
- Hilton's campaign has embraced a "Califailure" narrative, blaming Democrats for the state's decline and calling for tax cuts and deregulation.
What to watch:
- Whether any Democratic candidate drops out before the June 2 primary to consolidate the vote.
- How voter turnout shifts if the general election appears to be a choice between two Republicans.
- The potential impact on the US House of Representatives, as a Republican governor could alter the redistricting landscape.
The bottom line: The race has become a test of California's primary system, with Democrats facing a low-probability but catastrophic risk of losing the governorship.